The Timing of Evolutionary Transitions Suggests Intelligent Life is Rare.

Astrobiology
Andrew E Snyder-BeattieMichael B Bonsall

Abstract

It is unknown how abundant extraterrestrial life is, or whether such life might be complex or intelligent. On Earth, the emergence of complex intelligent life required a preceding series of evolutionary transitions such as abiogenesis, eukaryogenesis, and the evolution of sexual reproduction, multicellularity, and intelligence itself. Some of these transitions could have been extraordinarily improbable, even in conducive environments. The emergence of intelligent life late in Earth's lifetime is thought to be evidence for a handful of rare evolutionary transitions, but the timing of other evolutionary transitions in the fossil record is yet to be analyzed in a similar framework. Using a simplified Bayesian model that combines uninformative priors and the timing of evolutionary transitions, we demonstrate that expected evolutionary transition times likely exceed the lifetime of Earth, perhaps by many orders of magnitude. Our results corroborate the original argument suggested by Brandon Carter that intelligent life in the Universe is exceptionally rare, assuming that intelligent life elsewhere requires analogous evolutionary transitions. Arriving at the opposite conclusion would require exceptionally conservative priors, evidenc...Continue Reading

References

Apr 10, 1965·Nature·H F Blum
Nov 7, 1996·Nature·S J MojzsisC R Friend
Jan 1, 1997·Nature Structural Biology·K A Dill, H S Chan
Aug 14, 1999·Science·J J BrocksR E Summons
Dec 24, 1992·Nature·K Caldeira, J F Kasting
Jan 1, 1993·Icarus·J F KastingR T Reynolds
Feb 28, 2004·Astrobiology·P C W Davies
Jun 7, 2006·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Heinrich D Holland
Feb 21, 1964·Science·G G Simpson
Oct 30, 2007·Astrobiology·Christine BounamaSiegfried Franck
Jul 2, 2009·Astrobiology·Milan M CirkovićIvana Dragićević
Aug 4, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Laura Wegener ParfreyLaura A Katz
Dec 27, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·David S Spiegel, Edwin L Turner
Sep 21, 2013·Astrobiology·Andrew J RushbyAndrew J Watson
Aug 1, 1992·Photosynthesis Research·S M Awramik
Aug 27, 2014·PLoS Biology·Johan J BolhuisRobert C Berwick
Oct 21, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Elizabeth A BellWendy L Mao
Jul 7, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Caleb Scharf, Leroy Cronin
Mar 3, 2017·Nature·Matthew S DoddCrispin T S Little
Mar 24, 2018·Astrobiology·Ben K D PearcePaul G Higgs
Aug 22, 2018·Nature Ecology & Evolution·Holly C BettsDavide Pisani

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 10, 2021·Bio Systems·Predrag Slijepcevic, Chandra Wickramasinghe

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

SIA

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

Related Papers

Brookhaven Symposia in Biology
P Cloud
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
Eugene V Koonin
Studies in Health Technology and Informatics
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved