The Truth of Conditional Assertions

Cognitive Science
Geoffrey P Goodwin, P N Johnson-Laird

Abstract

Given a basic conditional of the form, If A then C, individuals usually list three cases as possible: A and C, not-A and not-C, not-A and C. This result corroborates the theory of mental models. By contrast, individuals often judge that the conditional is true only in the case of A and C, and that cases of not-A are irrelevant to its truth or falsity. This result corroborates other theories of conditionals. To resolve the discrepancy, we devised two new tasks: the "collective" truth task, in which participants judged whether sets of assertions about a specific individual, such as: If A then C, not-A, C, could all be true at the same time; and one in which participants judged the truth of conditional predictions about specific future events. The results consistently matched the three possibilities, thereby corroborating the model theory. They also showed a massive violation of the probability calculus in estimates of the probabilities of the four cases in the partition of conditionals (A and C, A and not-C, not-A and C, and not-A and not-C), which summed to over 200%.

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Citations

Jul 4, 2018·Cognitive Science·Sangeet S KhemlaniPhilip N Johnson-Laird
Jun 5, 2020·Memory & Cognition·Orlando EspinoP N Johnson-Laird
Jun 27, 2021·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review·Miguel López-AstorgaP N Johnson-Laird

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