The utility of extended longitudinal profiles in predicting future health care expenditures

Medical Care
Steven B CohenWilliam Yu

Abstract

Health care spending is highly concentrated. Prediction models that accurately identify the characteristics of individuals most likely to incur high levels of health expenditures in a subsequent year are important analytical and statistical tools. This study examined the capacity of alternative models to predict the likelihood of incurring high levels of medical expenditures in a subsequent year. This effort also evaluated the utility of an additional year of longitudinal information. A nationally representative sample from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). The MEPS longitudinal data are used to examine the persistence of high expenditures during a 2-year period. With the unique linkage of the MEPS to the National Health Interview Survey, the utility of an additional year of data also was examined. Resultant models were evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive capacity. Only modest marginal gains in discrimination capacity were realized from the use of extended longitudinal profiles from the National Health Interview Survey, relative to information on prior year characteristics. Our results highlight the continuing concentration of health care expenditures during the period 1996 to 2002 and reve...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 17, 2008·Research in Social & Administrative Pharmacy : RSAP·Junling WangShelley I White-Means
Jun 14, 2012·Health Economics·Jennifer L Kohn, Jing Shi Liu
Aug 19, 2014·Health Services Research·Laura R WherryLindsey Jeanne Leininger
Apr 2, 2015·Journal of Health Services Research & Policy·Li-Jung Elizabeth KuLi-Fan Liu
Nov 9, 2012·Health Services Management Research : an Official Journal of the Association of University Programs in Health Administration·Afschin GandjourVivian Ho
Jun 28, 2019·Big Data·Yeonkook J Kim, Hayoung Park
Sep 10, 2018·BMJ Open·Joost Johan Godert WammesPatrick P T Jeurissen
Dec 25, 2008·Medical Care·Steven B Cohen, William W Yu
Feb 28, 2014·Inquiry : a Journal of Medical Care Organization, Provision and Financing·Steven B Cohen, Joel W Cohen

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