The value of knowledge accumulation on climate sensitivity uncertainty: comparison between perfect information, single stage and act then learn decisions

Sustainability Science
Shunsuke Mori, Hideo Shiogama

Abstract

In COP21 followed by the Paris Agreement, the world is now seriously planning actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions toward a "below 2 °C above preindustrial levels" future. Currently, we are still far from identifying the emission pathways to achieve this target because of the various uncertainties in both climate science and the human behavior. As a part of the ICA-RUS project, conducted by Dr. Seita Emori of the National Institute for Environmental Studies we have studied how these uncertainties are eliminated by the accumulation of scientific knowledge and the decision-making processes. We consider the following three questions: first, when and how will the uncertainty range on the global temperature rise be eliminated, second which global emission pathway should be chosen before we get the perfect information, and third how much expenditure is justified in reducing the climate uncertainties. The first question has been investigated by one of the authors. Shiogama et al. (Sci Rep 6:18903, 2016) developed the Allen-Stott-Kettleborough (ASK) method further to estimate how quickly and in what way the uncertainties in future global mean temperature changes can decline when the current observation network of surface air te...Continue Reading

References

Oct 16, 2004·Science·Gary YoheMichael Schlesinger
Jan 12, 2016·Scientific Reports·H ShiogamaM R Allen
Jul 27, 2017·BioMed Research International·Bin WangQiang Wu

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