The value of value of information: best informing research design and prioritization using current methods.

PharmacoEconomics
Simon EckermannAndrew Willan

Abstract

Value of information (VOI) methods have been proposed as a systematic approach to inform optimal research design and prioritization. Four related questions arise that VOI methods could address. (i) Is further research for a health technology assessment (HTA) potentially worthwhile? (ii) Is the cost of a given research design less than its expected value? (iii) What is the optimal research design for an HTA? (iv) How can research funding be best prioritized across alternative HTAs? Following Occam's razor, we consider the usefulness of VOI methods in informing questions 1-4 relative to their simplicity of use. Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) with current information, while simple to calculate, is shown to provide neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition to address question 1, given that what EVPI needs to exceed varies with the cost of research design, which can vary from very large down to negligible. Hence, for any given HTA, EVPI does not discriminate, as it can be large and further research not worthwhile or small and further research worthwhile. In contrast, each of questions 1-4 are shown to be fully addressed (necessary and sufficient) where VOI methods are applied to maximize expected value of sample i...Continue Reading

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