The workbook approach to making estimates and projecting future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics

Sexually Transmitted Infections
N WalkerP D Ghys

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to making estimates and short term projections of future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. This approach focuses on identifying populations which through their behaviour are at higher risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of the size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Subsequently, assumptions about the possible level and timing of saturation of HIV prevalence among each population can be used to explore future scenarios of HIV prevalence. The basic structure of the software used to make estimates and projections is described. This software includes a set of consistency and audit checks to help exclude unrealistic projections. The paper also discusses the strengths and weakness to this approach to making estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.

Citations

Sep 12, 2012·Epidemiology and Infection·H J VriendE L M Op De Coul
Mar 6, 2010·Epidemiologic Reviews·Ron Brookmeyer
Oct 17, 2008·International Journal of Epidemiology·Yujiang JiaSten H Vermund
Dec 9, 2010·International Journal of Epidemiology·Ning WangUNKNOWN National Expert Group on HIV/AIDS Estimation
Jun 1, 2006·Sexually Transmitted Infections·L DegenhardtM Warner-Smith
Jun 1, 2006·Sexually Transmitted Infections·P D GhysG P Garnett
Jul 25, 2008·Sexually Transmitted Infections·Y V KruglovV P Saldanha
Jan 20, 2016·SAHARA J : Journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS Research Alliance·Leah Gilbert
May 8, 2007·Social Science & Medicine·Damien RidgeJonathan Elford
Apr 14, 2006·Cadernos de saúde pública·Elize Massard da FonsecaFrancisco I Bastos
Jun 21, 2017·Journal of Urban Health : Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine·Ashleigh J RichDavid M Moore
Feb 14, 2009·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Lu WangKumi Smith
Jul 20, 2012·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Rob LyerlaKevin M DeCock

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