Theory of reactive interventions in the elimination and control of malaria

Malaria Journal
Nakul ChitnisThomas A Smith

Abstract

Reactive case detection (RCD) is an integral part of many malaria control and elimination programmes and can be conceived of as a way of gradually decreasing transmission. However, it is unclear under what circumstances RCD may have a substantial impact on prevalence, how likely it is to lead to local elimination, or how effective it needs to be to prevent reintroduction after transmission has been interrupted. Analyses and simulations of a discrete time compartmental susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model were used to understand the mechanisms of how RCD changes transmission dynamics and estimate the impact of RCD programmes in a range of settings with varying patterns of transmission potential and programme characteristics. Prevalence survey data from recent studies in Zambia were used to capture the effects of spatial clustering of patent infections. RCD proved most effective at low prevalence. Increasing the number of index cases followed was more important than increasing the number of neighbours tested per index case. Elimination was achieved only in simulations of situations with very low transmission intensity and following many index cases. However, RCD appears to be helpful in maintaining the disease-free stat...Continue Reading

References

Nov 1, 1994·Mathematical Biosciences·L J Allen
May 2, 2009·Malaria Journal·David L Smith, Simon I Hay
Jul 23, 2011·Malaria Journal·Sandip MandalSomdatta Sinha
Oct 15, 2011·Trends in Parasitology·Thomas Smith, Allan Schapira
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Feb 15, 2013·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Robert C ReinerDavid L Smith
Jun 27, 2013·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·David L SmithAndrew J Tatem
May 17, 2019·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Michelle S HsiangBryan Greenhouse

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