Time and expected value of sample information wait for no patient

Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
Simon Eckermann, Andrew R Willan

Abstract

The expected value of sample information (EVSI) from prospective trials has previously been modeled as the product of EVSI per patient, and the number of patients across the relevant time horizon less those "used up" in trials. However, this implicitly assumes the eligible patient population to which information from a trial can be applied across a time horizon are independent of time for trial accrual, follow-up and analysis. This article demonstrates that in calculating the EVSI of a trial, the number of patients who benefit from trial information should be reduced by those treated outside as well as within the trial over the time until trial evidence is updated, including time for accrual, follow-up and analysis. Accounting for time is shown to reduce the eligible patient population: 1) independent of the size of trial in allowing for time of follow-up and analysis, and 2) dependent on the size of trial for time of accrual, where the patient accrual rate is less than incidence. Consequently, the EVSI and expected net gain (ENG) at any given trial size are shown to be lower when accounting for time, with lower ENG reinforced in the case of trials undertaken while delaying decisions by additional opportunity costs of time. App...Continue Reading

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Citations

Dec 3, 2013·International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care·Seamus KentColin Berry
Oct 13, 2011·PharmacoEconomics·Andrew R Willan
May 18, 2012·PharmacoEconomics·Andrew R Willan, Simon Eckermann
Feb 12, 2014·PharmacoEconomics·Simon Eckermann, Brita Pekarsky
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Jul 18, 2014·Journal of General Internal Medicine·Lusine AbrahamyanUNKNOWN Canadian Hemophilia Primary Prophylaxis (CHPS) Study Group
Mar 22, 2014·Journal of Medical Economics·Haitham W TuffahaPaul A Scuffham
Sep 28, 2015·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·Claire McKennaEldon Spackman
Apr 26, 2008·Health Economics·Simon Eckermann, Andrew R Willan
Jan 10, 2014·Statistics in Medicine·Maggie Hong Chen, Andrew R Willan
Apr 29, 2009·Health Economics·Andrew R Willan, Simon Eckermann
Jul 29, 2008·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·Ties HoomansKarl Claxton
Dec 25, 2012·Clinical Trials : Journal of the Society for Clinical Trials·Maggie H Chen, Andrew R Willan
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