Time series analyses of hand, foot and mouth disease integrating weather variables

PloS One
Yuanbin SongQiyi Zeng

Abstract

The past decade witnessed an increment in the incidence of hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) in the Pacific Asian region; specifically, in Guangzhou China. This emphasized the requirement of an early warning system designed to allow the medical community to better prepare for outbreaks and thus minimize the number of fatalities. Samples from 1,556 inpatients (hospitalized) and 11,004 outpatients (non-admitted) diagnosed with HFMD were collected in this study from January 2009 to October 2013. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied to establish high predictive model for inpatients and outpatient as well as three viral serotypes (EV71, Pan-EV and CA16). To integrate climate variables in the data analyses, data from eight climate variables were simultaneously obtained during this period. Significant climate variable identified by correlation analyses was executed to improve time series modeling as external repressors. Among inpatients with HFMD, 248 (15.9%) were affected by EV71, 137 (8.8%) were affected by Pan-EV+, and 436 (28.0%) were affected by CA16. Optimal Univariate SARIMA model was identified: (2,0,3)(1,0,0)52 for inpatients, (0,1,0)(0,0,2)52 for outpatients as well as three serotypes (EV...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 22, 2016·Journal of Tropical Pediatrics·Zu-Mu ZhouJing-Jiao Wei
Feb 7, 2018·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Li QiTao Shen
May 8, 2018·Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness·Xiaowen HuWei Ni
Aug 1, 2018·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Sangwon ChaeDonghyun Lee
Jul 16, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Victor OlsavszkyJohannes Benecke
Aug 15, 2018·BMC Infectious Diseases·Yang ZhaoKwok Leung Tsui
Feb 12, 2017·International Journal of Biometeorology·Pin WangWilliam B Goggins

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
SMA

Software Mentioned

SARIMA
R
R packages TSA
R package “ forecast
R package

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