Time series cross-correlation analysis of HIV seropositivity and pulmonary tuberculosis among migrants entering Kuwait

International Journal of Mycobacteriology
Saeed Akhtar, Hameed G H H Mohammad

Abstract

There is a paucity of published data on burden and pattern of dual infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and HIV among migrants from South Asia, South-east Asia and sub-Saharan Africa entering the Middle-East, particularly Kuwait. Therefore, this study assessed the overall prevalence of HIV infection and pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and evaluated the ecological relationship between them. Time series cross-correlation analysis was used to determine the ecological time-lagged relationship between the monthly proportions (per 100,000) of HIV seropositive and pulmonary TB cases among migrant workers that entered Kuwait between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2006. During the study period, overall prevalence (per 100,000) of HIV seropositivity and pulmonary TB among the migrants was 21 (494/23,28,582) (95% CI: 19-23), and 198 (4608/23,28,582) (95% CI: 192-204), respectively. Estimated cross-correlation function revealed a significant positive correlation (0.292±0.093) at lag -3 representing a positive relationship between the proportions of HIV seropositive (per 100,000) migrants tested 3 months earlier and the proportion of pulmonary TB (per 100,000) cases detected among migrants in a given month. Thus, the peak in proportion o...Continue Reading

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