PMID: 11607439Nov 15, 1993Paper

Times to extinction for small populations of large birds

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Stuart PimmJ Verner

Abstract

A major practical problem in conservation biology is to predict the survival times-"lifetimes"-for small populations under alternative proposed management regimes. Examples in the United States include the 'Alala (Hawaiian Crow; Corvus hawaiiensis) and Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). To guide such decisions, we analyze counts of all crow, owl, and hawk species in the most complete available data set: counts of bird breeding pairs on 14 European islands censused for 29-66 consecutive years. The data set yielded 129 records for analysis. We define the population ceiling as the highest number of breeding pairs observed from colonization to extinction, within a consecutive series of counts for a given species on a given island. The resulting distributions of population lifetimes as a function of population size prove to be highly skewed: most small populations disappear quickly, but a few last for a long time. Median (i.e., 50th percentile) lifetimes are calculated as only 1-5 yr for hawk, owl, and crow populations with ceilings of one or two breeding pairs. As expected if demographic accidents are the main cause of extinction for small populations, lifetimes rise by a factor of 3-4 for each additional pair up to...Continue Reading

Citations

Feb 10, 2004·Theoretical Population Biology·T J NewmanC Quince
Sep 26, 1995·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·S L Pimm, R A Askins
Aug 31, 2007·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Patrik KarlssonAnnie Jonsson
Jan 6, 2009·Journal of Evolutionary Biology·Yvonne Willi, Ary A Hoffmann
Feb 20, 2007·Ecology Letters·Kyle S Van HoutanThomas E Lovejoy
Apr 28, 2006·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Gareth J RussellStuart L Pimm
Nov 28, 2012·Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society·Michel BaguetteCamille Turlure
Feb 6, 2013·Molecular Ecology·Henrik JensenBernt-Erik Saether
May 17, 2006·Trends in Ecology & Evolution·Bernt-Erik Saether, Steinar Engen
Sep 26, 2006·Ecology·John M Drake
Sep 3, 2013·American Journal of Botany·John J Schenk
Jun 12, 2019·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Ryan HuangChandra Giri
Jun 9, 2000·Annual Review of Neuroscience·A D Gibson, D L Garbers
Apr 21, 2017·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Hugo Robles, Carlos Ciudad
Jul 21, 1995·Science·S L PimmT M Brooks

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