Timescales for detection of trends in the ocean carbon sink

Nature
Galen A McKinleyNicole S Lovenduski

Abstract

The ocean has absorbed 41 per cent of all anthropogenic carbon emitted as a result of fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture. The magnitude and the large-scale distribution of the ocean carbon sink is well quantified for recent decades. In contrast, temporal changes in the oceanic carbon sink remain poorly understood. It has proved difficult to distinguish between air-to-sea carbon flux trends that are due to anthropogenic climate change and those due to internal climate variability. Here we use a modelling approach that allows for this separation, revealing how the ocean carbon sink may be expected to change throughout this century in different oceanic regions. Our findings suggest that, owing to large internal climate variability, it is unlikely that changes in the rate of anthropogenic carbon uptake can be directly observed in most oceanic regions at present, but that this may become possible between 2020 and 2050 in some regions.

References

Nov 22, 1996·Science·J L Sarmiento, Le Quéré C
Sep 12, 2015·Science·Peter LandschützerRik Wanninkhof

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Citations

Sep 14, 2016·Annual Review of Marine Science·Galen A McKinleyDarren J Pilcher
Jan 31, 2017·Scientific Reports·J Severino P IbánhezNathalie Lefèvre
Jun 12, 2018·Annual Review of Marine Science·Frank E Muller-KargerRamon Varela
Sep 14, 2018·Annual Review of Marine Science·Nicolas GruberNicole S Lovenduski
Feb 2, 2018·Nature Communications·Goulven G LaruellePierre Regnier
Apr 20, 2019·Science Advances·H LiP Landschützer
Oct 2, 2020·Global Biogeochemical Cycles·Sarah SchluneggerFlavio Lehner
Apr 19, 2019·Nature·Philip W BoydThomas Weber
Oct 20, 2017·Applied Optics·Upendra N SinghMulugeta Petros
Sep 20, 2019·Nature Climate Change·Sarah SchluneggerRichard Slater
Jul 8, 2021·Geophysical Research Letters·Nicole S LovenduskiNancy L Williams
Dec 3, 2021·Science·Matthew C LongSteven C Wofsy
Jul 9, 2019··William MamakosBrayler Gonzales

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