Tobacco control and Healthy China 2030.

Tobacco Control
Mark Goodchild, Rong Zheng

Abstract

The Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China's policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused. This study explores the potential for full implementation of these measures to achieve the targeted reduction in smoking by 2030. First, a 'business as usual' scenario for China's cigarette market was developed based only on underlying economic parameters. Second, non-price tobacco control measures were then added assuming they are fully implemented by 2030. Third, excise per pack was raised to a level that would increase the real price of cigarettes by 50% in 2030. Under the business as usual scenario, the rate of smoking falls to around 26.6% in 2030. When non-price measures are included, the rate of smoking falls to 22.0% (20.9%~23.1%). Thus, non-price measures alone are unlikely to achieve the Healthy China target. Under the third scenario, excise per pack was roughly doubled in 2030 in order to increase real cigarette prices by 50%. The rate of smoking then falls to 19.7% (18.2%~21.3%), reflecting 78 million (59~97 million) fewer smokers compared with 2016. In addition,...Continue Reading

References

Dec 1, 2010·Tobacco Control·Frank J ChaloupkaUNKNOWN Working Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer
Jun 15, 2012·Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine·Peisen HeEiji Yano
Apr 2, 2016·Bulletin of the World Health Organization·Mark GoodchildNigar Nargis
Jun 27, 2017·Value in Health Regional Issues·Xiaodong TanHaiyan Shao
Jan 19, 2018·Journal of Public Health Management and Practice : JPHMP·David T LevyFrank Chaloupka
Jul 3, 2018·Bulletin of the World Health Organization·Mark Goodchild, Rong Zheng
Dec 12, 2017·Revista Panamericana De Salud Pública = Pan American Journal of Public Health·Mark GoodchildItziar Belausteguigoitia

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Citations

Feb 2, 2018·Circulation·Emelia J BenjaminUNKNOWN American Heart Association Council on Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee
Feb 25, 2020·The Journal of International Medical Research·Ci SongHutcha Sriplung
Nov 28, 2019·Tobacco Induced Diseases·Haoxiang LinYunting Zheng
Apr 12, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Jidong HuangMichael P Eriksen
Mar 1, 2021·BMC Health Services Research·Shiyao HuangLian Yang
May 25, 2021·Gynecological Endocrinology : the Official Journal of the International Society of Gynecological Endocrinology·Rui JuAlfred O Mueck
Jul 31, 2021·Economics and Human Biology·Kevin CallisonJeffrey C Schiman

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