PMID: 8588328May 1, 1995Paper

Towards eradication of measles virus: global progress and strategy evaluation

Veterinary Microbiology
D J NokesA R Butler

Abstract

Despite an increase in global measles vaccine coverage from under 20% in 1980 to around 80% in 1990, measles remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality world-wide. This paper addresses a number of issues relating to efforts to control measles, namely, (i) at the global level, how might we assess the impact of measles vaccination on the incidence of infection and associated disease, and, (ii), at the strategic level, how can we utilise an understanding of the transmission dynamics of childhood viral infections to aid the design of optimal immunisation programmes? Based on WHO vaccine coverage data, and organising countries according to similarities in demographic and epidemiological parameters, an age-structured model of measles transmission is used to capture the non-linear dynamics of infection and mass vaccination and to generate projections of the impact of measles immunization world-wide. The results provide a crude indication of the percentage reduction in measles cases by year 2000 (compared with no immunization) and suggest an approximately 70% reduction in cases over all ages, and 77% reduction in cases under 5 years (where there is the greatest risk of case fatality); these suggest that WHO targets for 1995 are u...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 24, 2004·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Peter M StrebelStephen L Cochi
Mar 12, 2005·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Paul Bellaby
Oct 13, 2000·American Journal of Public Health·W A OrensteinS L Cochi
Apr 12, 2003·Clinical Otolaryngology and Allied Sciences·D J Menger, R A Tange
Jul 2, 2015·Scientific Reports·Hirokazu KimuraMakoto Takeda
Jun 10, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Kimberly M Thompson

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