Jun 24, 2010

Towards quantification of uncertainty in predicting water quality failures in integrated catchment model studies

Water Research
A N A SchellartR M Ashley


This paper describes the development and application of a method for estimating uncertainty in the prediction of sewer flow quantity and quality and how this may impact on the prediction of water quality failures in integrated catchment modelling (ICM) studies. The method is generic and readily adaptable for use with different flow quality prediction models that are used in ICM studies. Use is made of the elicitation concept, whereby expert knowledge combined with a limited amount of data are translated into probability distributions describing the level of uncertainty of various input and model variables. This type of approach can be used even if little or no site specific data is available. Integrated catchment modelling studies often use complex deterministic models. To apply the results of elicitation in a case study, a computational reduction method has been developed in order to determine levels of uncertainty in model outputs with a reasonably practical level of computational effort. This approach was applied to determine the level of uncertainty in the number of water quality failures predicted by an ICM study, due to uncertainty associated with input and model parameters of the urban drainage model component of the ICM...Continue Reading

  • References8
  • Citations1


  • References8
  • Citations1


Mentioned in this Paper

Sediments, Marine
Surface Properties
Erosion Lesion
Landfill Leachate
Blood Ammonia Measurement
Ammonia Inhalants
Compound A 12

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