Tracing and analysis of 288 early SARS-CoV-2 infections outside China: A modeling study

PLoS Medicine
Francesco PinottiVittoria Colizza

Abstract

In the early months of 2020, a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread rapidly from China across multiple countries worldwide. As of March 17, 2020, COVID-19 was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. We collected data on COVID-19 cases outside China during the early phase of the pandemic and used them to predict trends in importations and quantify the proportion of undetected imported cases. Two hundred and eighty-eight cases have been confirmed out of China from January 3 to February 13, 2020. We collected and synthesized all available information on these cases from official sources and media. We analyzed importations that were successfully isolated and those leading to onward transmission. We modeled their number over time, in relation to the origin of travel (Hubei province, other Chinese provinces, other countries) and interventions. We characterized the importation timeline to assess the rapidity of isolation and epidemiologically linked clusters to estimate the rate of detection. We found a rapid exponential growth of importations from Hubei, corresponding to a doubling time of 2.8 days, combined with a slower growth from the other areas. We predicted a rebound of importations from South Ea...Continue Reading

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Citations

Dec 22, 2020·Nature·Giulia PullanoVittoria Colizza
Feb 10, 2021·Infectious Disease Modelling·Rory HumphriesPhilipp Hövel
Mar 26, 2021·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Jacob BurnsEva Rehfuess
Mar 28, 2021·Nature Communications·Marco MancastroppaRaffaella Burioni
Aug 25, 2020·The Lancet. Digital Health·Chiara PolettoErik M Volz
May 6, 2021·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·A BarratJ Saramäki
May 4, 2021·Information Systems Frontiers : a Journal of Research and Innovation·Francesco PiccialliSalvatore Cuomo
Jul 28, 2021·The Journal of Infection·Lama Bou-KarroumCharbel El Bcheraoui

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