Tracking elimination of HIV transmission in men who have sex with men in England: a modelling study.

The Lancet. HIV
Francesco BrizziDaniela De Angelis

Abstract

To manage the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in England, treatment as prevention strategies based on test and treat were strengthened between 2011 and 2015, and supplemented from 2015 by scale-up of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We examined the effect of these interventions on HIV incidence and investigated whether internationally agreed targets for HIV control and elimination of HIV transmission by 2030 might be within reach among MSM in England. We used a novel, age-stratified, CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence and undiagnosed infections among adult MSM (age ≥15 years) during the 10-year period between 2009 and 2018. The model used data on HIV and AIDS diagnoses routinely collected via the national HIV and AIDS Reporting System in England, and knowledge on the progression of HIV through CD4-defined disease stages. Estimated incidence trends were extrapolated, assuming a constant MSM population from 2018 onwards, to quantify the likelihood of achieving elimination of HIV transmission, defined as less than one newly aquired infection per 10 000 MSM per year, by 2030. The peak in HIV incidence in MSM in England was estimated with 80% certainty to have occurred in 2012 or ...Continue Reading

References

Dec 2, 2005·Statistics in Medicine·Michael J SweetingOdd O Aalen
Nov 26, 2010·The New England Journal of Medicine·Robert M GrantUNKNOWN iPrEx Study Team
Jul 20, 2011·The New England Journal of Medicine·Myron S CohenUNKNOWN HPTN 052 Study Team
Jul 19, 2012·International Journal of STD & AIDS·D J ClutterbuckUNKNOWN Clinical Effectiveness Group of British Association for Sexual Health and HIV (BASHH) and British HIV Association (BHIVA)
Feb 5, 2013·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Reuben Granich
Feb 5, 2013·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Paul J BirrellDaniela De Angelis
Feb 6, 2017·The Lancet. HIV· The Lancet Hiv
Apr 1, 2017·The Lancet. HIV·Nneka NwokoloAlan McOwan
Jul 1, 2017·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Alison E BrownO Noel Gill
Mar 20, 2018·Annals of Internal Medicine·Sonia SinghH Irene Hall
Feb 28, 2019·Lifetime Data Analysis·Francesco BrizziDaniela De Angelis

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