PMID: 16639871Apr 28, 2006Paper

Transition to college: A classification and regression tree (CART) analysis of natural reduction of binge drinking

International Journal of Adolescent Medicine and Health
Peter W VikMelinda Jorgensen

Abstract

Approximately one in five teens that drank heavily in high school reduces or discontinues consumption while in college. Multiple paths might lead to the common outcome of natural reduction in heavy drinking. Statistical modeling of this complex process of natural reduction is a challenge with standard linear statistics. The purpose of this paper is to use a new statistical procedure, Classification and Regression Tree (CART), to model the equifinality of reduction in drinking by college students who drank heavily as adolescents. An appealing aspect of CART is that the resulting tree model that can easily be interpreted and applied by those who work with adolescents during the important transition from high school to college. Of 201 college students who first binged on alcohol while in high school, 71 (35.3%) denied heavy or binge drinking within the previous three months (Natural Reducers). The final model accurately classified 84.6% of the students as either continued heavy drinkers or natural reducers. Sensitivity was modest (accurate identification of 67.6% of the reducers); however, specificity was strong (correct classification of 93.8% of the continued heavy drinkers). The model revealed four pathways to natural reduction...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 28, 2014·Alcoholism, Clinical and Experimental Research·Ralitza GueorguievaStephanie S O'Malley
Aug 18, 2018·Journal of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance : Official Journal of the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance·Fourat RidouaniJean-François Deux
Jan 27, 2018·Oncotarget·Allison S CohenDavid L Morse
Sep 18, 2007·The American Journal of Emergency Medicine·Elizabeth DillardThomas J Esposito

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