Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Bangladesh- A Compartmental Modeling Approach

Abul Mukid Md. Muka, Mridul Sannyal


The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first identified in Bangldesh, on March 8, 2020. As of May 15, there are 20065 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 3882 patients who have recovered and 298 related deaths. The objective of this study is to examine the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and predict the growth of the infection in Bangladesh using the publicly available data though a mathematical model. The suscected-exposed-infectious-recoverd-dead (SEIRD) model is employed to describe the dynamics based on the kinematic parameters fitted on the data for the outbreak in Bangladesh up to May 15. The expression of basic reproduction number using the next generating matrix is derived and estimated. The kinematic parameters that describe transmission rate (0.045), recovery rate (0.03) and death rate (0.01) seems to be lower, respective of other countries. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the cumulative number of active infected follows an exponential trend. The mean reproduction number 2.25 (95% CI: 1.90-2.40) and transmission trends clearly indicates the outbreak of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. There is now breakneck concern regarding the capacity to respond to needs of infected patients e...Continue Reading

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds


Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Hereditary Sensory Autonomic Neuropathy

Hereditary Sensory Autonomic Neuropathies are a group of inherited neurodegenerative disorders characterized clinically by loss of sensation and autonomic dysfunction. Here is the latest research on these neuropathies.

Glut1 Deficiency

Glut1 deficiency, an autosomal dominant, genetic metabolic disorder associated with a deficiency of GLUT1, the protein that transports glucose across the blood brain barrier, is characterized by mental and motor developmental delays and infantile seizures. Follow the latest research on Glut1 deficiency with this feed.

Regulation of Vocal-Motor Plasticity

Dopaminergic projections to the basal ganglia and nucleus accumbens shape the learning and plasticity of motivated behaviors across species including the regulation of vocal-motor plasticity and performance in songbirds. Discover the latest research on the regulation of vocal-motor plasticity here.

Neural Activity: Imaging

Imaging of neural activity in vivo has developed rapidly recently with the advancement of fluorescence microscopy, including new applications using miniaturized microscopes (miniscopes). This feed follows the progress in this growing field.

Nodding Syndrome

Nodding Syndrome is a neurological and epileptiform disorder characterized by psychomotor, mental, and growth retardation. Discover the latest research on Nodding Syndrome here.

LRRK2 & Microtubules

Mutations in the LRRK2 gene are risk-factors for developing Parkinson’s disease (PD). LRRK2 mutations in PD have been shown to enhance its association with microtubules. Here is the latest research.

Related Papers

Practical Neurology
Fahmida Amin Chowdhury
Department of State Publication. Background Notes Series
United States. Department of State. Bureau of Public Affairs. Office of Public Communication
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved