Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis

Journal of Medical Virology
Yaqing FangMarshare Penny

Abstract

Using the parameterized susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, we simulated the spread dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and impact of different control measures, conducted the sensitivity analysis to identify the key factor, plotted the trend curve of effective reproductive number (R), and performed data fitting after the simulation. By simulation and data fitting, the model showed the peak existing confirmed cases of 59 769 arriving on 15 February 2020, with the coefficient of determination close to 1 and the fitting bias 3.02%, suggesting high precision of the data-fitting results. More rigorous government control policies were associated with a slower increase in the infected population. Isolation and protective procedures would be less effective as more cases accrue, so the optimization of the treatment plan and the development of specific drugs would be of more importance. There was an upward trend of R in the beginning, followed by a downward trend, a temporary rebound, and another continuous decline. The feature of high infectiousness for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2) led to an upward trend, and government measures contributed to the temporary rebound and dec...Continue Reading

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