Feb 7, 2016

Transmission dynamics of Zika virus in island populations: a modelling analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia outbreak

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Adam KucharskiEric J Nilles

Abstract

Between October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease were reported in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has been associated with neurological complications including Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly, which led the World Health Organization declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2015. To better understand the transmission dynamics of ZIKV, we used a mathematical model to examine the 2013-14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. Our median estimates for the basic reproduction number ranged from 1.9-3.1, with an estimated 11.2% (95% CI: 10.1-12.9%) of total infections reported. As a result, we estimated that 86% (95% CI: 75-93%) of the total population of the six archipelagos were infected during the outbreak. There were 42 GBS cases reported during the ZIKV outbreak in French Polynesia, but the presence of a large number of unreported ZIKV infections could have implications for the design of case-control studies to further investigate a possible association between the two. Based on the demography of French Polyn...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Neurologic Complication
Virus
Reproduction
World Health Organization
Disease Transmission
Microcephaly
Analysis
Zika Virus Disease (Disorder)
Case-Control Studies
FBXW7 wt Allele

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