Treating coral bleaching as weather: a framework to validate and optimize prediction skill

PeerJ
Thomas M DeCarlo

Abstract

Few coral reefs remain unscathed by mass bleaching over the past several decades, and much of the coral reef science conducted today relates in some way to the causes, consequences, or recovery pathways of bleaching events. Most studies portray a simple cause and effect relationship between anomalously high summer temperatures and bleaching, which is understandable given that bleaching rarely occurs outside these unusually warm times. However, the statistical skill with which temperature captures bleaching is hampered by many "false alarms", times when temperatures reached nominal bleaching levels, but bleaching did not occur. While these false alarms are often not included in global bleaching assessments, they offer valuable opportunities to improve predictive skill, and therefore understanding, of coral bleaching events. Here, I show how a statistical framework adopted from weather forecasting can optimize bleaching predictions and validate which environmental factors play a role in bleaching susceptibility. Removing the 1 °C above the maximum monthly mean cutoff in the typical degree heating weeks (DHW) definition, adjusting the DHW window from 12 to 9 weeks, using regional-specific DHW thresholds, and including an El Niño t...Continue Reading

References

May 29, 2009·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·D M Thompson, R van Woesik
Sep 17, 2013·Global Change Biology·Cheryl A LoganSimon D Donner
Apr 16, 2016·Science·Tracy D AinsworthWilliam Leggat
Mar 17, 2017·Nature·Terry P HughesShaun K Wilson
Mar 24, 2017·Scientific Reports·Thomas M DeCarloKeryea Soong
Apr 27, 2017·PloS One·Simon D DonnerScott F Heron
Apr 28, 2018·Nature Communications·Aryan SafaieKristen A Davis
Nov 13, 2018·Communications Biology·Hannah C BarkleyVictoria H Luu
Mar 7, 2019·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Thomas M DeCarloMalcolm T McCulloch
Mar 22, 2019·Nature Communications·S SullyR van Woesik
Apr 12, 2019·Global Change Biology·Lily G C GenevierIbrahim Hoteit
Aug 14, 2019·Nature Ecology & Evolution·Emily S DarlingDavid Mouillot

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Citations

May 9, 2021·Global Change Biology·Pedro C Gonzalez-Espinosa, Simon D Donner

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
PCA

Software Mentioned

HadISST

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