Trend estimation for complex survey designs of water chemistry indicators from Sierra Nevada Lakes

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
L A H StarcevichT Philippi

Abstract

Surveys for long-term monitoring programs managing natural resources often incorporate sampling design complexity. However, design weights are often ignored in trend models of data from complex sampling designs. Generalized random tessellation stratified samples of a simulated population of lakes are selected with various levels of survey design complexity, and three trend approaches are compared. We compare an unweighted trend model, linear regression models of the trend in design-based estimates of annual status, and a probability-weighted iterative generalized least squares (PWIGLS) approach with a linearization variance. The bias and confidence interval coverage of the trend estimate and the size and power of the trend test are used to evaluate weighted and unweighted approaches. We find that the unweighted approach often outperforms the other trend approaches by providing high power for trend detection and nominal confidence interval coverage of the true trend regression parameter. We also find that variance composition and revisit design structure affect the performance of the PWIGLS estimator. When a subpopulation exhibiting an extreme trend is sampled disproportionately to its occurrence in the population, the unweighte...Continue Reading

References

Jul 5, 2003·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Trent L McDonald
Jun 15, 2005·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·N H BergM Arbaugh
Jul 22, 2006·Environmental Science & Technology·Dennis R Helsel, Lonna M Frans
May 30, 2008·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·S G FancyS L Carter
Jun 24, 2009·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·L NanusD W Clow
Jul 13, 2013·Biometrics·B L RobertsonP Jaksons
Aug 1, 2014·Environmental Science & Technology·Andrea M HeardJason H Curtis

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Software Mentioned

R
Vital Signs
R Core Team
SubTrnd
R package spsurvey
spsurvey
GRTS

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