Trend of HIV/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90-90-90 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis

BMC Infectious Diseases
Tadele GirumAbdulsemed Worku

Abstract

HIV infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic. Ethiopia has adopted the 90-90-90 by 2020 target but its progress was not yet assessed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trend of HIV infection for the last 26 years and to predict the achievements of the 90-90-90 target. We used aggregates of HIV/AIDS indicator data from 1990 to 2016 of UNAIDS data bases. The data were analyzed with excel and STATA. The trend line that best fits the regression was drawn, annual change was estimated and future values of HIV detection rate, coverage of antiretroviral therapy and viral suppression indicators were predicted and compared with the 90-90-90 targets. Since 1995, new infection has declined by 81% and since 2002; number of HIV cases has declined by 35.5%. However, after remarkable decline for decades, since 2008 HIV incidence rate began to rise by 10% and number of new infection diagnosed each year increased by 36% among all ages and doubled among adults. ART coverage has increased by 90% among all age and tripled among pregnant women within 6 years. Nationally, 67% of people living with HIV know their status, 88...Continue Reading

References

Apr 4, 2006·Sexually Transmitted Infections·W HladikW Tadesse

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Citations

Jan 28, 2020·Perspectives in Psychiatric Care·Mehri LotfalizadehJamileh Farokhzadian
Apr 2, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·William D EvansBidia Deperthes
May 21, 2019·Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS Care·Alan Raymond LifsonTibebe Shenie
Apr 17, 2020·BMC Infectious Diseases·Tsiwaye GebreyesusGebremedhin Haile
Aug 18, 2020·HIV/AIDS : Research and Palliative Care·Etsehiwot Debe WorkuMelese Linger Endalifer
Jul 16, 2020·Medicinal Research Reviews·Hai-Feng WuKuo-Hsiung Lee
Aug 26, 2020·Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine·Mulugeta MelkuDegefaye Zelalem Anlay
Feb 5, 2021·HIV/AIDS : Research and Palliative Care·Addisu Tadesse SahileSelamawit Fekadu Fanta
Dec 23, 2021·Breastfeeding Medicine : the Official Journal of the Academy of Breastfeeding Medicine·Renata EcclesEsedra Krüger

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
circumcision

Software Mentioned

STATA
excel

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