Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability

Scientific Reports
Lejiang YuXindi Bian

Abstract

Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset to identify trends in seasonal warm anomalies over the contiguous U.S. in the three most recent decades and explore their relationships to low-frequency modes of internal climate variability. The results reveal substantial upward trends in the frequency of warm anomalies in all seasons and in all regions of the U.S., except for portions of the Intermountain West in winter where significant downward trends occur. The strengths and regional coverage of the trends, however, differ considerably by season. These trends can be explained, in part, by the large-scale anomalous atmospheric circulations associated with low-frequency sea-surface temperature oscillations characterized by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The association between the upward t...Continue Reading

References

Oct 21, 2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Noah S DiffenbaughFilippo Giorgi
Mar 19, 2011·Science·David BarriopedroRicardo García-Herrera

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Citations

Jun 13, 2019·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Douglas J Shinneman, Susan K McIlroy
Jan 9, 2019·Frontiers in Plant Science·Brian T Lawrence, Juan Carlos Melgar

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MATLAB
Ensemble Kalman Filter
Simulink

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