Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

Ecology and Evolution
Eric GobervilleChristophe Luczak

Abstract

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 2, 2017·Global Change Biology·Colin R MahonySally N Aitken
Oct 11, 2017·Global Change Biology·Marcin K DyderskiAndrzej M Jagodziński
Apr 12, 2019·PloS One·Leonardo S MirandaTereza C Giannini
May 18, 2020·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Percy Jinga, Jason Palagi
Feb 1, 2019·Scientific Reports·Alaaeldin SoultanKamran Safi
Feb 12, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Cristian Román-Palacios, John J Wiens
Oct 19, 2017·Scientific Reports·Lisa K KochSarah Cunze
Jan 8, 2020·Heliyon·Cristiam Victoriano Portilla Cabrera, John Josephraj Selvaraj
Dec 19, 2020·Global Change Biology·Radosław PuchałkaAndrzej M Jagodziński
Feb 18, 2021·Scientific Reports·Alexandre SchickeleVirginie Raybaud
Jun 5, 2019·Entropy·Champika S KariyawasamSujith S Ratnayake

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Software Mentioned

GARP
GISS
ESM
CMIP5
LR
WorldClim
Spatial and Analysis toolbox SaGA
R
HadGEM2
ES

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