PMID: 9556442Apr 29, 1998Paper

Uncertainty and variability analysis in multiplicative risk models

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
S N Rai, D Krewski

Abstract

Currently, there is a trend away from the use of single (often conservative) estimates of risk to summarize the results of risk analyses in favor of stochastic methods which provide a more complete characterization of risk. The use of such stochastic methods leads to a distribution of possible values of risk, taking into account both uncertainty and variability in all of the factors affecting risk. In this article, we propose a general framework for the analysis of uncertainty and variability for use in the commonly encountered case of multireplicative risk models, in which risk may be expressed as a product of two or more risk factors. Our analytical methods facilitate the evaluation of overall uncertainty and variability in risk assessment, as well as the contributions of individual risk factors to both uncertainty and variability which is cumbersome using Monte Carlo methods. The use of these methods is illustrated in the analysis of potential cancer risks due to the ingestion of radon in drinking water.

References

Oct 1, 1994·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·F O Hoffman, J S Hammonds
Aug 1, 1994·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·B FinleyP Price
Jun 1, 1994·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·R E KeenanP S Price
Feb 1, 1994·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·J S EvansR L Sielken
Nov 1, 1995·Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics·W F RosenbergerR P Bain

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Citations

Feb 17, 2000·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·R L Kodell, D W Gaylor
Feb 17, 2000·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·D KrewskiP K Hopke
Dec 4, 2003·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·A E Ades, G Lu
Nov 12, 2005·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·A E AdesJ P T Higgins

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