Under the hood of the earthquake machine: toward predictive modeling of the seismic cycle

Science
Sylvain BarbotJean-Philippe Avouac

Abstract

Advances in observational, laboratory, and modeling techniques open the way to the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with potentially predictive power. To explore that possibility, we developed an integrative and fully dynamic model of the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault. The model succeeds in reproducing a realistic earthquake sequence of irregular moment magnitude (M(w)) 6.0 main shocks--including events similar to the ones in 1966 and 2004--and provides an excellent match for the detailed interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic observations collected along this fault during the most recent earthquake cycle. Such calibrated physical models provide new ways to assess seismic hazards and forecast seismicity response to perturbations of natural or anthropogenic origins.

Citations

Jun 20, 2013·Nature Communications·Marco BohnhoffMustafa Aktar
May 15, 2012·Science·Paul Segall
Apr 5, 2016·Nature·Deepa Mele Veedu, Sylvain Barbot
Nov 19, 2014·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Timothy H DixonVictor Gonzalez
Jun 11, 2016·Science·Junle Jiang, Nadia Lapusta
Oct 6, 2016·Nature Communications·Semechah K Y Lui, Nadia Lapusta
Feb 23, 2019·Science Advances·Baptiste RoussetMichel Campillo
Sep 10, 2020·Nature Communications·Sylvain Barbot
Feb 18, 2017·Physical Review. E·Kamran KarimiJean-Louis Barrat
Apr 13, 2018·Nature Communications·Ekbal HussainAndrew Hooper
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Aug 24, 2016·Reports on Progress in Physics·Yehuda Bock, Diego Melgar
Apr 20, 2018·Scientific Reports·A Goswami, S Barbot
May 20, 2014·Physical Review Letters·E A JaglaAlberto Rosso

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