Understanding the origin of COVID-19 requires to change the paradigm on zoonotic emergence from the spillover to the circulation model.

Infection, Genetics and Evolution : Journal of Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics in Infectious Diseases
Roger FrutosChristian A Devaux

Abstract

While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with currently more than 117 million cumulated cases and 2.6 million deaths worldwide as per March 2021, its origin is still debated. Although several hypotheses have been proposed, there is still no clear explanation about how its causative agent, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in human populations. Today, scientifically-valid facts that deserve to be debated still coexist with unverified statements blurring thus the knowledge on the origin of COVID-19. Our retrospective analysis of scientific data supports the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is indeed a naturally occurring virus. However, the spillover model considered today as the main explanation to zoonotic emergence does not match the virus dynamics and somehow misguided the way researches were conducted. We conclude this review by proposing a change of paradigm and model and introduce the circulation model for explaining the various aspects of the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 emergence in humans.

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Citations

May 26, 2021·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·Christian SelbachKim N Mouritsen
Jul 13, 2021·Environmental Research·Roger FrutosChristian Devaux
Jul 27, 2021·New Microbes and New Infections·R FrutosC A Devaux
Oct 8, 2021·Frontiers in Microbiology·Christian A DevauxRoger Frutos

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