Uneven decline in fertility rates in adolescents in 32 countries of the Region of the Americas, 1960-2019Diminuição desigual nas taxas de fecundidade de adolescentes em 32 países da Região das Américas, 1960-2019

Revista Panamericana De Salud Pública = Pan American Journal of Public Health
Juan Guerrero Núñez

Abstract

To determine the time pattern of adolescent fertility rates (AFRs) in the countries of the Region of the Americas, categorizing them to evaluate their mobility and differences, and to produce a forecast for 2023. Ecological and descriptive study of a time series of AFRs in 32 countries, from 1960 to 2019, based on information from the World Bank and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Trends in the AFR were estimated using a linear regression model (Prais-Winsten method). Differences were evaluated between two subperiods (1960-1989 and 1990-2019) and among four categories of the AFR for 2019 by testing related samples and analysis of variance, respectively. The AFR for 2023 was predicted with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The AFR time series for the sample was non-stationary and the annual average trend was downward (coefficient = -1.173; p < 0.001; R2 adjusted = 0.968), dropping from 124 per 1 000 in 1960 to 56.1 per 1 000 in 2019. The countries with the largest and smallest annual trend were Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (-2.783) and Argentina (0.017). Between subperiods (1960-1989 compared to 1990-2019) there were no statistically significant differences between the AFR in Uruguay and A...Continue Reading

References

Jun 3, 1999·Annual Review of Public Health·J J Card
Mar 11, 2016·The New England Journal of Medicine·Lawrence B Finer, Mia R Zolna
Mar 30, 2016·The Journal of Adolescent Health : Official Publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine·Sarah B ManessJeffrey D Kromrey
Nov 20, 2016·The Journal of Adolescent Health : Official Publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine·John S SantelliRussell M Viner
Dec 21, 2016·Revista colombiana de psiquiatría·Carlos Gómez-RestrepoCarlos Javier Rincón
Jan 23, 2017·The Journal of Adolescent Health : Official Publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine·Jason M Nagata
Jun 15, 2019·The Journal of Adolescent Health : Official Publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine·Elisabeth Fortin-LangelierJean-Yves Frappier
Oct 17, 2019·Revista da Associação Médica Brasileira·Denise Leite Maia MonteiroAlexandre José Baptista Trajano

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