Universal scaling laws in metro area election results

PloS One
Eszter BokányiGábor Vattay

Abstract

We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948-2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single parameter only, and one of the parties always shows superlinear scaling and drives the process, while the sublinear exponent of the other party is merely the consequence of probability conservation. Based on the recently developed model of urban scaling, we give a microscopic model of voter behavior in which we replace diversity characterizing humans in creative aspects with social diversity and tolerance. The model can also predict new political developments such as the fragmentation of the left and the immigration paradox.

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Citations

Aug 23, 2018·PloS One·Hygor Piaget M MeloJosé S Andrade
Dec 12, 2019·Royal Society Open Science·Eszter BokányiGábor Vattay
Oct 31, 2019·PloS One·Hygor P M MeloJosé S Andrade
May 22, 2019·Physical Review. E·Denner S VieiraRenio S Mendes

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