Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Nicolas AlcalaNoah A Rosenberg

Abstract

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence-absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline-in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss-in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20-30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction-colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability t...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 12, 2019·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Paige E HowellRichard B Chandler

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Software Mentioned

MIDASPOM
SPOMSIM

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