Using a down-scaled bioclimate envelope model to determine long-term temporal connectivity of Garry oak (Quercus garryana) habitat in western North America: implications for protected area planning.

Environmental Management
Marlow G PellattAlex J Cannon

Abstract

Under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA), Garry oak (Quercus garryana) ecosystems are listed as "at-risk" and act as an umbrella for over one hundred species that are endangered to some degree. Understanding Garry oak responses to future climate scenarios at scales relevant to protected area managers is essential to effectively manage existing protected area networks and to guide the selection of temporally connected migration corridors, additional protected areas, and to maintain Garry oak populations over the next century. We present Garry oak distribution scenarios using two random forest models calibrated with down-scaled bioclimatic data for British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon based on 1961-1990 climate normals. The suitability models are calibrated using either both precipitation and temperature variables or using only temperature variables. We compare suitability predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and present CGCM2 model results under two emissions scenarios. For each GCM and emissions scenario we apply the two Garry oak suitability models and use the suitability models to determine the extent and temporal connectivity of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat within protected areas from 2...Continue Reading

References

Sep 9, 2006·Science·Miguel B Araújo, Carsten Rahbek
Jan 27, 2007·BMC Bioinformatics·Carolin StroblTorsten Hothorn
Mar 29, 2007·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·John W WilliamsJohn E Kutzbach
Aug 19, 2010·Ecology·Andrew S MacDougallNatalie T Jones

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Citations

Jun 12, 2014·PloS One·Richard SchusterPeter Arcese
Oct 7, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Carrie A SchlossAaron Jones

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