Using Google Trends and ambient temperature to predict seasonal influenza outbreaks

Environment International
Yuzhou ZhangWenbiao Hu

Abstract

The discovery of the dynamics of seasonal and non-seasonal influenza outbreaks remains a great challenge. Previous internet-based surveillance studies built purely on internet or climate data do have potential error. We collected influenza notifications, temperature and Google Trends (GT) data between January 1st, 2011 and December 31st, 2016. We performed time-series cross correlation analysis and temporal risk analysis to discover the characteristics of influenza epidemics in the period. Then, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and regression tree model were developed to track influenza epidemics using GT and climate data. Influenza infection was significantly corrected with GT at lag of 1-7 weeks in Brisbane and Gold Coast, and temperature at lag of 1-10 weeks for the two study settings. SARIMA models with GT and temperature data had better predictive performance. We identified autoregression (AR) for influenza was the most important determinant for influenza occurrence in both Brisbane and Gold Coast. Our results suggested internet search metrics in conjunction with temperature can be used to predict influenza outbreaks, which can be considered as a pre-requisite for constructing early warn...Continue Reading

Citations

Apr 18, 2019·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Yuzhou ZhangWenbiao Hu
Jan 15, 2020·Parasites & Vectors·Zhiwei XuWenbiao Hu
Feb 16, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Artur Strzelecki
Nov 18, 2018·Zoonoses and Public Health·Máté Kapitány-FövényMihály Sulyok
Sep 4, 2019·International Journal of Biometeorology·Yuzhou ZhangWenbiao Hu
Jul 1, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Daniel Alejandro Gónzalez-BandalaChristian A García-Sepúlveda
Jul 20, 2019·Scientific Reports·Ying ChenWenbiao Hu
Aug 9, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Albertus J SmitNeville A Sweijd
Oct 27, 2020·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Tae Heum ParkSooyoung Kim
Jan 10, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Hannah McClymont, Wenbiao Hu
Oct 22, 2019·Dermatologic Surgery : Official Publication for American Society for Dermatologic Surgery [et Al.]·Gaurav SinghRoy Geronemus
Jun 30, 2021·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Faris F BrkicDavid T Liu
Aug 1, 2021·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·Yueying TanJing Tang
Aug 4, 2021·Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness·Parmeshwar SatpathyPankaj Prasad
Oct 13, 2021·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Mengyang LiuLixin Tao

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