Mar 27, 2015

State-level transport flows are predictive of the dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Eamon B O'DeaShweta Bansal

Abstract

More than a year after the emergence and rapid spread of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in the U.S. swine herd, the extent to which the virus has spread through pathways associated with the transportation of swine remains unclear. We analyze counts of state-level, laboratory-confirmed infections to better discern the pathways by which the virus has propagated. In particular, we aim to establish and quantify any large-scale association of swine movements with the spread of PEDV. To that end, we find that the similarity of the dynamics of cases in a pair of states increases with transport flows. We find with stability selection that balance sheet variables and the number of farms in a state are likely be relevant predictors of PEDV burdens. Fitting a time series susceptible-infected-recovered model by maximum likelihood, we reject the hypothesis that flows have no effect on the transmission rate. We show with simulation how our state-level analyses may be affected by farm-level variation in risk relations. Overall, the results are consistent with the common belief that transmission is associated with swine movement and provide quantification of the strength of association.

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Mentioned in this Paper

Virus
Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus
Laboratory
Surgical Drapes
Farming Environment
Disease Transmission
Observation - Diagnostic Procedure
Structure
Simulation
Analysis

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