Using mobile phone data to predict the spatial spread of cholera

Scientific Reports
Linus BengtssonRenaud Piarroux

Abstract

Effective response to infectious disease epidemics requires focused control measures in areas predicted to be at high risk of new outbreaks. We aimed to test whether mobile operator data could predict the early spatial evolution of the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic. Daily case data were analysed for 78 study areas from October 16 to December 16, 2010. Movements of 2.9 million anonymous mobile phone SIM cards were used to create a national mobility network. Two gravity models of population mobility were implemented for comparison. Both were optimized based on the complete retrospective epidemic data, available only after the end of the epidemic spread. Risk of an area experiencing an outbreak within seven days showed strong dose-response relationship with the mobile phone-based infectious pressure estimates. The mobile phone-based model performed better (AUC 0.79) than the retrospectively optimized gravity models (AUC 0.66 and 0.74, respectively). Infectious pressure at outbreak onset was significantly correlated with reported cholera cases during the first ten days of the epidemic (p < 0.05). Mobile operator data is a highly promising data source for improving preparedness and response efforts during cholera outbreaks. Findings m...Continue Reading

References

Dec 14, 2001·Nature·B T GrenfellJ Kappey
Jan 24, 2004·Lancet·David A SackA K Siddique
Aug 5, 2005·Science·Ira M LonginiM Elizabeth Halloran
Aug 5, 2005·Nature·Neil M FergusonDonald S Burke
Apr 1, 2006·Science·Cécile ViboudBryan T Grenfell
Oct 17, 2007·American Journal of Epidemiology·Pascal Crépey, Marc Barthélemy
Jun 6, 2008·Nature·Marta C GonzálezAlbert-László Barabási
Jun 6, 2008·Nature Reviews. Microbiology·Nicholas C Grassly, Christophe Fraser
Dec 19, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Duygu BalcanAlessandro Vespignani
May 15, 2010·Lancet·Robert E BlackUNKNOWN Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group of WHO and UNICEF
Jun 25, 2010·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Rosalind M EggoNeil M Ferguson
Feb 12, 2011·PloS One·Tini GarskeNeil Ferguson
Apr 13, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Dennis L ChaoIra M Longini
Jul 15, 2011·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·L MariA Rinaldo
Jul 19, 2011·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Renaud PiarrouxDidier Raoult
Feb 23, 2012·Scientific Reports·Arnaud Le MenachDavid L Smith
Apr 17, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Andrea RinaldoIgnacio Rodriguez-Iturbe
Apr 19, 2012·Clinical Microbiology and Infection : the Official Publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases·R R FrerichsR Piarroux
Jun 20, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Xin LuPetter Holme
Oct 11, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ralph R FrerichsRenaud Piarroux
Oct 16, 2012·Science·Amy WesolowskiCaroline O Buckee
Oct 25, 2012·PLoS Computational Biology·James Truscott, Neil M Ferguson
Jan 11, 2013·The New England Journal of Medicine·Ronald J WaldmanHeather E Papowitz
Jan 11, 2013·The New England Journal of Medicine·Ezra J BarzilayJordan W Tappero
Feb 6, 2013·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Cécile ViboudEdward C Holmes
Feb 8, 2013·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Amy WesolowskiCaroline O Buckee
Apr 18, 2013·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Jean GaudartRenaud Piarroux
Oct 10, 2013·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Brendan R Jackson The Cholera Serosurvey Working Group

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 14, 2016·Malaria Journal·Nick W RuktanonchaiAndrew J Tatem
May 25, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Flavio FingerEnrico Bertuzzo
Oct 26, 2016·Population Health Metrics·Elisabeth Zu Erbach-SchoenbergAndrew J Tatem
Nov 18, 2015·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Christopher TroegerRenaud Piarroux
May 17, 2018·PLoS Computational Biology·Damiano PasettoAndrea Rinaldo
Nov 24, 2017·International Journal of Health Geographics·Kankoé SallahJean Gaudart
Sep 4, 2018·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Karly A JacobsenGrzegorz A Rempała
Aug 14, 2018·Transboundary and Emerging Diseases·Rachel A TaylorEmma L Snary
Dec 27, 2018·PLoS Computational Biology·Gina PoloDirk Brockmann
Aug 23, 2017·Informatics for Health & Social Care·Boukary OuedraogoJean-Charles Dufour
Apr 17, 2019·PloS One·Jinzhou CaoFeilong Wang
Jun 3, 2017·Royal Society Open Science·Cecilia PaniguttiVittoria Colizza
Nov 9, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·David Fisman, Ashleigh Tuite
Feb 13, 2020·Journal of Evidence-based Medicine·Tao ZhouWei Zhang
Feb 20, 2020·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Takahiro YabeSatish V Ukkusuri
Feb 1, 2018·PloS One·Rudy ArthurHywel T P Williams
Mar 30, 2017·Scientific Reports·Lorenzo MariRenato Casagrandi
Aug 24, 2017·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Amy WesolowskiC J E Metcalf
Jul 22, 2018·JMIR MHealth and UHealth·Kerina Helen JonesDavid Vincent Ford
Jun 19, 2019·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Bouke C de JongMartin Antonio
Dec 15, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Shuli ZhouTie Song
Jan 1, 2016·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Linnet Taylor
Mar 23, 2019·JMIR MHealth and UHealth·Kerina Helen JonesDavid Vincent Ford
Jul 28, 2018·International Journal of Health Geographics·Nick Warren RuktanonchaiAndrew J Tatem
Mar 8, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Jayanthi RajarethinamLee-Ching Ng
Sep 22, 2020·Information Systems Frontiers : a Journal of Research and Innovation·Yanxin WangXin Robert Luo
Apr 15, 2020·Nature Medicine·Marcello Ienca, Effy Vayena
Aug 26, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·John R GilesAmy Wesolowski
May 21, 2019·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Joacim RocklövJan C Semenza
Oct 22, 2020·Public Understanding of Science·Gabrielle SamuelGemma Derrick
Nov 11, 2020·PloS One·Xiao HuangDwayne Porter
Dec 10, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Rolando J AcostaCaroline O Buckee
Jan 27, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ymir Vigfusson Danon
Dec 31, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Kankoé SallahJean Gaudart
Feb 10, 2021·Social Network Analysis and Mining·Anasse BariMegan Coffee
Nov 17, 2020·Journal of the Indian Institute of Science·Rahul Matthan
Dec 23, 2020·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Karolina GriffithsStanislas Rebaudet

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

© 2022 Meta ULC. All rights reserved