Using non-exceedance probabilities of policy-relevant malaria prevalence thresholds to identify areas of low transmission in Somalia.

Malaria Journal
Emanuele GiorgiR W Snow

Abstract

Countries planning malaria elimination must adapt from sustaining universal control to targeted intervention and surveillance. Decisions to make this transition require interpretable information, including malaria parasite survey data. As transmission declines, observed parasite prevalence becomes highly heterogeneous with most communities reporting estimates close to zero. Absolute estimates of prevalence become hard to interpret as a measure of transmission intensity and suitable statistical methods are required to handle uncertainty of area-wide predictions that are programmatically relevant. A spatio-temporal geostatistical binomial model for Plasmodium falciparum prevalence (PfPR) was developed using data from cross-sectional surveys conducted in Somalia in 2005, 2007-2011 and 2014. The fitted model was then used to generate maps of non-exceedance probabilities, i.e. the predictive probability that the region-wide population-weighted average PfPR for children between 2 and 10 years (PfPR2-10) lies below 1 and 5%. A comparison was carried out with the decision-making outcomes from those of standard approaches that ignore uncertainty in prevalence estimates. By 2010, most regions in Somalia were at least 70% likely to be bel...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 8, 2020·BMJ Global Health·Julius Nyerere OdhiamboBenn Sartorius
Jan 9, 2021·Malaria Journal·Victor A AleganaRobert W Snow
May 27, 2021·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sophie A LeeRachel Lowe
Jun 10, 2021·BMJ Global Health·Muhammed SemakulaChristel Faes
Sep 30, 2021·Obesity Reviews : an Official Journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity·Tim Lobstein, Jo Jewell

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