Using search engine big data for predicting new HIV diagnoses

PloS One
Sean D Young, Qingpeng Zhang

Abstract

A large and growing body of "big data" is generated by internet search engines, such as Google. Because people often search for information about public health and medical issues, researchers may be able to use search engine data to monitor and predict public health problems, such as HIV. We sought to assess the feasibility of using Google search data to analyze and predict new HIV diagnoses cases in the United States. From 2007 to 2014, we collected search volume data on HIV-related Google search keywords across the United States. State-level new HIV diagnoses data were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and AIDSVu.org. We developed a negative binomial model to predict HIV cases using a subset of significant predictor keywords identified by LASSO. The Google search data were combined with state-level HIV case reports provided by the CDC. We use historical data to train the model and predict new HIV diagnoses from 2011 to 2014, with an average R2 value of 0.99 between predicted versus actual cases, and average root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 108.75. Results indicate that Google Trends is a feasible tool to predict new cases of HIV at the state level. We discuss the implications of integrating v...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 15, 2019·JMIR Public Health and Surveillance·Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Naim Mahroum
Feb 16, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Artur Strzelecki
Jun 6, 2020·Journal of Medical Engineering & Technology·Lidong Wang, Cheryl Ann Alexander
Aug 14, 2020·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Yan ZhangXiaohua Wang
Oct 3, 2020·PloS One·Alastair van Heerden, Sean Young
Aug 27, 2019·Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS·Steffanie A StrathdeeJohn W Ayers
Dec 4, 2019·Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases·Bolin CaoWeiming Tang
Dec 15, 2020·Economics and Human Biology·Bita Fayaz Farkhad, Dolores Albarracín
Feb 12, 2021·Journal of Addictive Diseases·Lidia Flores, Sean D Young
Feb 9, 2021·Multimedia Tools and Applications·Richa Mishra, Surya Prakash Tripathi
Feb 13, 2021·NPJ Digital Medicine·Sean D YoungRosalie Liccardo Pacula
Mar 18, 2021·AIDS and Behavior·Renee Garett, Sean D Young
Apr 20, 2021·AIDS·Bankole OlatosiXiaoming Li
Jan 23, 2021·The Journal of General Psychology·Katerina Standish
May 7, 2021·Journal of Addictive Diseases·Romina A Romero, Sean D Young
Aug 9, 2020·The Lancet. HIV·Nitika Pant PaiTrevor Peter
Jun 11, 2021·Current HIV/AIDS Reports·Romina A RomeroSean D Young
Jul 1, 2021·AIDS Care·Bita Fayaz FarkhadDolores Albarracín

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