Vaccination and the theory of games

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Chris T Bauch, David J D Earn

Abstract

Voluntary vaccination policies for childhood diseases present parents with a subtle challenge: if a sufficient proportion of the population is already immune, either naturally or by vaccination, then even the slightest risk associated with vaccination will outweigh the risk from infection. As a result, individual self-interest might preclude complete eradication of a vaccine-preventable disease. We show that a formal game theoretical analysis of this problem leads to new insights that help to explain human decision-making with respect to vaccination. Increases in perceived vaccine risk will tend to induce larger declines in vaccine uptake for pathogens that cause more secondary infections (such as measles and pertussis). After a vaccine scare, even if perceived vaccine risk is greatly reduced, it will be relatively difficult to restore prescare vaccine coverage levels.

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Citations

Jan 20, 2007·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Monica-Gabriela CojocaruMatthew D Johnston
Mar 17, 2011·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Chad R WellsChris T Bauch
Nov 8, 2006·Nature Medicine·Virginia Hughes
Nov 19, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Sanjay BasuAlison P Galvani
Aug 10, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Petra KlepacBryan T Grenfell
Jul 1, 2009·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Frederick H Chen, Allin Cottrell
Sep 1, 2009·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Timothy C Reluga
Nov 1, 2010·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Annamaria Barbagallo, Monica-Gabriela Cojocaru
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Jun 17, 2011·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·Joseph B BabigumiraAlya Dabbagh
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May 28, 2010·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sebastian FunkVincent A A Jansen
Jun 3, 2011·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Jingzhou LiuAlison P Galvani
Apr 13, 2012·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Eunha ShimAlison P Galvani
Aug 2, 2013·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Christos NicolaidesRuben Juanes
Aug 10, 2005·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Chris T Bauch
Jul 30, 2010·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Feng FuMartin A Nowak
Jun 27, 2013·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Scott Barrett
Jul 17, 2010·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Eunha ShimAlison P Galvani
Mar 1, 2008·BMC Infectious Diseases·Raluca AmarieiChris T Bauch
May 30, 2009·BMC Infectious Diseases·Ana Perisic, Chris T Bauch
Mar 5, 2011·BMC Public Health·Eunha ShimAlison P Galvani
May 8, 2007·PLoS Computational Biology·Raffaele VardavasSally Blower
Feb 7, 2009·PLoS Computational Biology·Ana Perisic, Chris T Bauch
Jul 14, 2009·PLoS Computational Biology·Flávio Codeço Coelho, Claudia T Codeço
Feb 8, 2011·PLoS Computational Biology·Daniel M CornforthLauren Ancel Meyers
Apr 13, 2012·PLoS Computational Biology·Chris T Bauch, Samit Bhattacharyya
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Mar 19, 2013·PLoS Computational Biology·Chad R WellsChris T Bauch
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