Validation and calibration of a computer simulation model of pediatric HIV infection

PloS One
Andrea L CiaranelloKenneth A Freedberg

Abstract

Computer simulation models can project long-term patient outcomes and inform health policy. We internally validated and then calibrated a model of HIV disease in children before initiation of antiretroviral therapy to provide a framework against which to compare the impact of pediatric HIV treatment strategies. We developed a patient-level (Monte Carlo) model of HIV progression among untreated children <5 years of age, using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model framework: the CEPAC-Pediatric model. We populated the model with data on opportunistic infection and mortality risks from the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA), with mean CD4% at birth (42%) and mean CD4% decline (1.4%/month) from the Women and Infants' Transmission Study (WITS). We internally validated the model by varying WITS-derived CD4% data, comparing the corresponding model-generated survival curves to empirical survival curves from IeDEA, and identifying best-fitting parameter sets as those with a root-mean square error (RMSE) <0.01. We then calibrated the model to other African settings by systematically varying immunologic and HIV mortality-related input parameters. Model-generated survival curves for childr...Continue Reading

References

Oct 16, 1996·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·M C WeinsteinL B Russell
Mar 15, 2001·The New England Journal of Medicine·K A FreedbergS J Goldie
Aug 8, 2002·Pediatrics·Sanay ChearskulUNKNOWN Bangkok Collaborative Perinatal HIV Transmission Study Group
Oct 9, 2002·American Journal of Epidemiology·Joshua A SalomonSue J Goldie
Dec 4, 2003·Statistics in Medicine·David J Spiegelhalter, Nicola G Best
Oct 7, 2004·Lancet·Marie-Louise NewellUNKNOWN Ghent International AIDS Society (IAS) Working Group on HIV Infection in Women and Children
Feb 11, 2005·The New England Journal of Medicine·A David PaltielRochelle P Walensky
Oct 6, 2005·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Paul E SaxKenneth A Freedberg
Jul 27, 2006·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·A Sarah WalkerUNKNOWN CHAP Trial Team
Sep 15, 2006·The New England Journal of Medicine·Sue J GoldieKenneth A Freedberg
Oct 13, 2006·Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs·Dennis G FrybackPatrick L Remington
Feb 17, 2007·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Walter E Stamm
Feb 17, 2007·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Rashida A FerrandElizabeth L Corbett
Dec 20, 2007·AIDS·UNKNOWN Cross Continents Collaboration for Kids (3Cs4kids) Analysis and Writing Committee
May 13, 2008·Lancet·Matthias Egger, Andrew Boulle
Aug 2, 2008·Bulletin of the World Health Organization·Martin W G BrinkhofUNKNOWN ART-LINC, IeDEA
Nov 21, 2008·The New England Journal of Medicine·Avy ViolariUNKNOWN CHER Study Team
Jul 22, 2009·Annals of Internal Medicine·Rochelle P WalenskyUNKNOWN CEPAC (Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications)-International Investigators
Aug 12, 2009·PharmacoEconomics·Natasha K StoutG Scott Gazelle
Mar 17, 2010·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·Jeremy D Goldhaber-FiebertSue J Goldie
Aug 27, 2010·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Bjarne Robberstad, Bjørg Evjen-Olsen
Sep 17, 2010·PloS One·Chara E RydzakUNKNOWN CEPAC Investigators
Dec 15, 2010·PharmacoEconomics·Tazio VanniRosa Legood
Feb 11, 2011·Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation : C/E·Mira Johri, Denis Ako-Arrey
Sep 22, 2011·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Stefano OrlandoLeonardo Palombi
May 18, 2012·Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH·Mary MunyagwaDermot Maher
Sep 20, 2012·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·David M EddyUNKNOWN ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force
Sep 25, 2012·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·David M EddyUNKNOWN ISPOR−SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force
Dec 4, 2012·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Andrea L CiaranelloKenneth A Freedberg

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Oct 22, 2014·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·April D KimmelBruce R Schackman
Apr 19, 2018·Journal of the International AIDS Society·Divya MallampatiAndrea Ciaranello
Nov 16, 2017·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Eleanor J MurrayMiguel A Hernán
Oct 29, 2020·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Ravi GoyalBoyd Gilman

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Methods Mentioned

BETA
PCR

Software Mentioned

Pediatric
CEPAC

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.