Validation of a vaginal birth after cesarean delivery prediction model in women with two prior cesarean deliveries

Obstetrics and Gynecology
Torri D MetzWilliam A Grobman

Abstract

To evaluate whether an existing vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) prediction model validated for women with one prior cesarean delivery also accurately predicts the likelihood of VBAC in women with two prior cesarean deliveries. We performed a secondary analysis of all women attempting trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) with a term singleton pregnancy and two prior cesarean deliveries in the Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network (MFMU) Cesarean Registry. Probability of VBAC was calculated for each participant using the MFMU VBAC prediction model. Women were considered to have a recurring indication for cesarean delivery if the indication for either their first or second cesarean delivery was arrest of dilation or descent. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to assess the classification ability of the model and the predicted likelihood of VBAC success was compared with the actual likelihood using a calibration curve. Among 369 women with two prior cesarean deliveries undergoing TOLAC, the actual VBAC rate was 66% (95% confidence interval [CI] 61-71). The mean predicted probability of VBAC was higher among women with a successful TOLAC than those with a failed TOLAC (75% compared with 59%, P<...Continue Reading

References

Dec 16, 2004·The New England Journal of Medicine·Mark B LandonUNKNOWN National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network
Jun 2, 2006·Obstetrics and Gynecology·Robert M SilverUNKNOWN National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network
Jul 4, 2006·Obstetrics and Gynecology·Mark B LandonUNKNOWN National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network
Apr 3, 2007·Obstetrics and Gynecology·William A GrobmanUNKNOWN National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network (MFMU)
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Mar 9, 2013·Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Canada : JOGC = Journal D'obstétrique Et Gynécologie Du Canada : JOGC·Nils ChailletWilliam A Grobman

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Citations

Jan 23, 2018·Journal of Midwifery & Women's Health·Patrick Thornton
Oct 25, 2017·Obstetrics and Gynecology·UNKNOWN Committee on Practice Bulletins-Obstetrics
Feb 17, 2018·Scientific Reports·Juan WenWei Long
Sep 30, 2020·American Journal of Perinatology·Oluwateniola BrownChristina Lewicky-Gaupp
Jan 27, 2019·Obstetrics and Gynecology·UNKNOWN American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists' Committee on Practice Bulletins—Obstetrics
Oct 27, 2020·The Journal of Maternal-fetal & Neonatal Medicine : the Official Journal of the European Association of Perinatal Medicine, the Federation of Asia and Oceania Perinatal Societies, the International Society of Perinatal Obstetricians·Raanan MeyerAbraham Tsur
Feb 3, 2020·American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology·Michal LipschuetzYishai Sompolinsky
Apr 2, 2021·The Journal of Maternal-fetal & Neonatal Medicine : the Official Journal of the European Association of Perinatal Medicine, the Federation of Asia and Oceania Perinatal Societies, the International Society of Perinatal Obstetricians·Stephen M WagnerSuneet P Chauhan
Aug 3, 2021·Experimental and Therapeutic Medicine·Alexandru CarauleanuDemetra Socolov
Dec 22, 2020·American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology MFM·Thoa K HaStephanie L Gaw

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