Validation of the breast cancer surveillance consortium model of breast cancer risk

Breast Cancer Research and Treatment
Jeffrey A TiceKarla Kerlikowske

Abstract

In order to use a breast cancer prediction model in clinical practice to guide screening and prevention, it must be well calibrated and validated in samples independent from the one used for development. We assessed the accuracy of the breast cancer surveillance consortium (BCSC) model in a racially diverse population followed for up to 10 years. The BCSC model combines breast density with other risk factors to estimate a woman's 5- and 10-year risk of invasive breast cancer. We validated the model in an independent cohort of 252,997 women in the Chicago area. We evaluated calibration using the ratio of expected to observed (E/O) invasive breast cancers in the cohort and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). In an independent cohort of 252,997 women (median age 50 years, 26% non-Hispanic Black), the BCSC model was well calibrated (E/O = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.98), but underestimated the incidence of invasive breast cancer in younger women and in women with low mammographic density. The AUROC was 0.633, similar to that observed in prior validation studies. The BCSC model is a well-validated risk assessment tool for breast cancer that may be particularly useful...Continue Reading

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Aug 19, 2015·Journal of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology·Jeffrey A TiceKarla Kerlikowske
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Citations

Jun 1, 2019·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Karla KerlikowskeCeline M Vachon
Dec 9, 2020·Breast Cancer Research : BCR·Gordon P WattJonine L Bernstein
Mar 30, 2021·Journal of Breast Imaging·Geunwon Kim, Manisha Bahl
May 6, 2021·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·Serena C Houghton, Susan E Hankinson
May 13, 2021·AJR. American Journal of Roentgenology·Bethany L NiellSusan T Vadaparampil
Aug 27, 2021·JAMA Network Open·Shailesh M AdvaniUNKNOWN Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium
Oct 9, 2021·Journal of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology·Julie R PalmerLudovic Trinquart

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