Valuing intervention and observation

The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology : QJEP
David W Green, David E Over

Abstract

Understanding causal relations is fundamental to effective action but causal data can be confounded. We examined the value that participants placed on data derived from a hypothetical intervention or observation. Our materials involved a possible cause ("bottled water"), a possible confound ("food"), and a context ("a restaurant"). We supposed that participants seek to draw as specific a causal inference as possible from presented data and value information sources more highly that allow them to do so. On this basis, we predicted that in circumstances where an intervention removed the confounding causal factor but observation did not, participants would prefer data derived from an intervention when the possible cause was present (the bottled water was drunk) but show the reverse preference when the possible cause was absent (the bottled water was not drunk). Experiment 1 confirmed this prediction. Using a between-subjects design, Experiment 2 tested for a difference in confidence in causal judgements given identical data, including data on the confound, as a function of method of data collection (intervention or observation). There was no significant difference in confidence ratings between the two methods but confidence rating...Continue Reading

References

Jul 1, 1995·Memory & Cognition·J R Anderson, C F Sheu
Aug 8, 2001·Psychological Review·D E Over, D W Green
Jan 1, 2003·Memory & Cognition·York Hagmayer, Michael R Waldmann
Jan 9, 2003·Trends in Cognitive Sciences·Clark Glymour
Feb 6, 2004·Psychological Review·Alison GopnikDavid Danks
Jul 9, 2004·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition·David A Lagnado, Steven Sloman
Mar 10, 2005·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition·Michael R Waldmann, York Hagmayer
Jan 2, 2005·Cognitive Science·Steven A Sloman, David A Lagnado

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