Vegetation-fire feedback reduces projected area burned under climate change

Scientific Reports
Matthew D HurteauChristine Wiedinmyer

Abstract

Climate influences vegetation directly and through climate-mediated disturbance processes, such as wildfire. Temperature and area burned are positively associated, conditional on availability of vegetation to burn. Fire is a self-limiting process that is influenced by productivity. Yet, many fire projections assume sufficient vegetation to support fire, with substantial implications for carbon (C) dynamics and emissions. We simulated forest dynamics under projected climate and wildfire for the Sierra Nevada, accounting for climate effects on fuel flammability (static) and climate and prior fire effects on fuel availability and flammability (dynamic). We show that compared to climate effects on flammability alone, accounting for the interaction of prior fires and climate on fuel availability and flammability moderates the projected increase in area burned by 14.3%. This reduces predicted increases in area-weighted median cumulative emissions by 38.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) and 0.6 Tg particulate matter (PM1), or 12.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that after correcting for potential over-estimates of the effects of climate-driven increases in area burned, California is likely to continue facing significant wil...Continue Reading

References

Feb 5, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·J R MarlonC Whitlock
Feb 13, 2010·Environmental Science & Technology·Christine Wiedinmyer, Matthew D Hurteau
Oct 27, 2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Richard J NorbyRoss E McMurtrie
Jul 27, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Anthony L WesterlingMichael G Ryan
May 25, 2016·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Anthony LeRoy Westerling
Jul 15, 2016·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Michelle CoppolettaBrandon M Collins
Nov 2, 2016·Global Change Biology·Shuang LiangAnthony LeRoy Westerling
Dec 22, 2016·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Donald McKenzie, Jeremy S Littell
Apr 14, 2017·Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences·Mariano GarciaHeiko Balzter

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Citations

Nov 2, 2019·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Winslow D HansenMonica G Turner
Aug 22, 2020·Bioscience·Jonathan D CoopKyle C Rodman
Oct 10, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Rongbin XuYuming Guo
Nov 19, 2020·Scientific Reports·Ali Hassan ShabbirCarlos Valencia
Aug 3, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Paul F HessburgFrank K Lake
Aug 3, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Susan J PrichardPratima Khatri-Chhetri
Nov 3, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Yizhou ZhuangAlex Hall
Nov 18, 2021·Science Advances·Aurora A GutierrezJames T Randerson

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Software Mentioned

II
raster
R
Dynamic Fire extension
LANDIS
GFDL
LANDIS Succession
Dynamic Leaf Biomass Fuel extension

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