Vegetation response to early holocene warming as an analog for current and future changes

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Kenneth L Cole

Abstract

Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5-4 degrees C over the next 60-90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid-colonizing species should increase, whereas slow-colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 degrees C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early-successional species rapidly increased, whereas late-successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, ...Continue Reading

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Feb 1, 2008·Journal of Biogeography·Kenneth L ColeSandra Swift

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Citations

Feb 4, 2010·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Jerrold L BelantJoshua J Lawler
Apr 27, 2011·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Kenneth L ColeChris Toney
May 8, 2018·Journal of Ethnobiology and Ethnomedicine·Mireia Alcántara RodríguezTinde Van Andel
Mar 7, 2012·Ecology and Evolution·Craig Loehle

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