Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries.

The Science of the Total Environment
Jinhua PanHaidong Kan

Abstract

To examine the association between meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and UV radiation) and transmission capacity of COVID-19. We collected daily numbers of COVID-19 cases in 202 locations in 8 countries. We matched meteorological data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. We used a time-frequency approach to examine the possible association between meteorological conditions and basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19. We determined the correlations between meteorological factors and R0 of COVID-19 using multiple linear regression models and meta-analysis. We further validated our results using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) metapopulation model to simulate the changes of daily cases of COVID-19 in China under different temperatures and relative humidity conditions. Temperature did not exhibit significant association with R0 of COVID-19 (meta p = 0.446). Also, relative humidity (meta p = 0.215), wind speed (meta p = 0.986), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation (meta p = 0.491) were not significantly associated with R0 either. The SEIR model in China showed that with a wide range of meteorological conditions, the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases would not...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 6, 2021·Current Allergy and Asthma Reports·Eric B Brandt, Tesfaye B Mersha
Mar 29, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·P W MillerP Wang
Apr 29, 2021·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Ambreen KhursheedAyesha Akhtar
Jul 27, 2021·SN Computer Science·Mohammad Marufur RahmanMabrook S Al-Rakhami
Sep 4, 2021·Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. Part a·André S OlakMonica M B Paoliello
Aug 31, 2021·International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health·Santiago Gómez-HerreraAndré H Rosa
Oct 6, 2021·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Xiangyu YanZhongwei Jia

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Software Mentioned

R
MATLAB

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