Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Yinghui LiXuexin Qu

Abstract

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several cou...Continue Reading

References

Dec 4, 2012·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Pei-Te ChiuehShang-Lien Lo
Apr 21, 2016·Environmental Monitoring and Assessment·Aleksandra N Šiljić TomićViktor V Pocajt
Apr 26, 2017·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Jesús Manuel Ochoa-RiveroBeatriz A Rocha-Gutiérrez
Jul 3, 2017·The Science of the Total Environment·L D Rizo-DecelisB Andreo
Sep 16, 2017·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Lianne McLeodCheryl L Waldner

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Citations

Sep 26, 2020·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Rongjia WangJianfeng Zhang
May 31, 2018·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Ning ZhangYuhong Wang

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