When Equal Chances = Good Chances: Verbal Probabilities and the Equiprobability Effect

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Karl Halvor Teigen

Abstract

When six equally qualified candidates compete for the same position, p = 1/6 for each. People seem to accept this principle more readily for numerical than for verbal probabilities. Equal chances with three to six alternatives are often verbally described in a positive vein as "entirely possible" or "a good chance" and rarely negatively as "doubtful" or "improbable." This equiprobability effect of verbal probabilities is demonstrated in five studies describing job applicants, lottery players, competing athletes, and examination candidates. The equiprobability effect is consistent with a causal (propensity) view of probabilities, where chances are believed to reflect the relative strength of facilitating and preventive causes. If important conditions in support of the target outcome are present (the candidate is qualified for the position), and there is little to prevent it from occurring (no stronger candidates), chances appear to be good. In the presence of obstacles (one stronger candidate), or in the absence of facilitating conditions (the candidate is poorly qualified), chances appear to be poor, even when numerical p values remain constant. The findings indicate that verbal and numerical probability estimates can reflect d...Continue Reading

References

Oct 21, 1999·Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes·K H Teigen, W Brun
Mar 9, 2000·Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes·P D Windschitl

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Citations

May 11, 2002·Journal of Personality and Social Psychology·Paul D WindschitlAnnette R Flugstad
Sep 23, 2003·Journal of Personality and Social Psychology·Paul D WindschitlEricka Nus Simms
Jan 23, 2004·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition·Paul D Windschitl, John R Chambers
Nov 17, 2006·Scandinavian Journal of Psychology·Carl Martin AllwoodAnna-Carin Jonsson
Mar 4, 2014·Epidemiology and Infection·S E RocheA C Breed
May 9, 2001·Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes·Paul D. Windschitl, Michael E. Young
Aug 24, 2016·The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology : QJEP·Hidehito Honda, Kimihiko Yamagishi

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