Why lockdown? Why national unity? Why global solidarity? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the 2019 novel coronavirus

Infectious Disease Modelling
Gerry F Killeen, S. Kiware

Abstract

As every country in the world struggles with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is essential that as many people as possible understand the epidemic containment, elimination and exclusion strategies required to tackle it. Simplified arithmetic models of COVID-19 transmission, control and elimination are presented in user-friendly Shiny and Excel formats that allow non-specialists to explore, query, critique and understand the containment decisions facing their country and the world at large. Although the predictive model is broadly applicable, the simulations presented are based on parameter values representative of the United Republic of Tanzania, which is still early enough in its epidemic cycle and response to avert a national catastrophe. The predictions of these models illustrate (1) why ambitious lock-down interventions to crush the curve represent the only realistic way for individual countries to contain their national-level epidemics before they turn into outright catastrophes, (2) why these need to be implemented so early, so stringently and for such extended periods, (3) why high prevalence of other pathogens causing similar symptoms to mild COVID-19 precludes the use of contact tracing as a substitute for lock down i...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 3, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Jaegeum RyuSmi Choi-Kwon

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Software Mentioned

Excel®
Excel

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