Will achieving herd immunity be a road to success to end the COVID-19 pandemic?

The Journal of Infection
Kin On KwokJulian Wei Tze Tang

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the availability of several different new vaccines, their varying supply levels, effectiveness, and immunity duration across different ethnic populations, together with natural infection rates, will have an impact on when each country can reach herd immunity (ranging from 15.3% to 77.1%). Here we estimate the population proportions still required to gain immunity (ranging from 0.01% to 48.8%) to reach an overall herd immunity level to stop the exponential virus spread in 32 selected countries.

References

Mar 27, 2020·The Journal of Infection·Kin On KwokJulian W T Tang
Sep 6, 2020·Nature Reviews. Immunology·Mangalakumari JeyanathanZhou Xing
Dec 20, 2020·Nature Reviews. Immunology·Lianpan Dai, George F Gao
Mar 4, 2021·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Christopher J L Murray, Peter Piot
Apr 21, 2021·Nature Medicine·Hagai RossmanEran Segal
Jun 22, 2021·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Kin On KwokSamuel Yeung Shan Wong

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R
R Foundation for Statistical Computing

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